A Genocidal Massacre is Looming in Darfur
A large city, El Fasher, faces attack by a genocidal militia.
El Fasher is the largest city in Sudan's Darfur region. It is also one of the few major cities in Darfur that has not fallen to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) during the civil war that broke out last year. However, an attack on El Fasher seems imminent. The RSF has surrounded the city and is laying siege to it. The United States, the United Nations, and key players around the world are urging against this impending attack, but it's unclear whether the RSF will be deterred.
There are deep concerns for the fate of at least 800,000 people trapped in El Fasher, given that the RSF is a genocidal militia. The RSF is the re-branded Janjaweed Militia, which carried out the Darfur genocide 20 years ago. Since the full-scale civil war in Sudan began in April 2023, the RSF has reprised many of its genocidal tactics, targeting non-Arab ethnicities in Darfur for annihilation.
My guest today is Mutasim Ali, Legal Advisor at the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights. The Wallenberg Centre recently published a report compiling evidence that genocide is ongoing in Darfur, with the RSF perpetrating it against non-Arab groups. We discuss at length how they came to this conclusion. Mutasim Ali is also from El Fasher, so we talk about the looming RSF assault on the city and what, if anything, can be done to prevent this attack.
Sudan represents the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. This episode is part of our ongoing series on the atrocities in Darfur and the civil war in Sudan, which is receiving scant media attention despite the sheer scale of this ongoing calamity. The podcast episode is freely available across all podcast listening platforms.
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Transcript edited for clarity
Mark Leon Goldberg: So, we are speaking on Thursday, May 2nd. By the time this episode is released, it may be the fact that the RSF is attacking or has already attacked one of the largest cities in the region, El Fasher. The United States government, the UN, everyone is saying, ‘Please do not attack this city. This is going to cause a humanitarian catastrophe.’ If indeed the RSF does carry out this attack on El Fasher, what would you expect to happen based on all that you know about the RSF?
Mutasim Ali: So, definitely the consequences will be more catastrophic in terms of numbers than what we have seen in El Geneina.
Mark Leon Goldberg: You are referring to a different city that the RSF attacked last summer. El Geneina is the capital of West Darfur, which RSF sacked in June. Hundreds of thousands of people fled that city and there is evidence of mass atrocities.
Mutasim Ali: Right. And there are a couple of reasons why I believe that El Fasher will be more tragic. El Fasher now is home to, according to the UN, 800,000 people. And I’m from North Darfur, El Fasher, and I believe this number is inaccurate. The population in El Fasher is way, way bigger than this. But let’s rely on the UN numbers, that there are about 800,000 people — most of these people are already displaced from other places that are captured by the RSF. Others have been displaced persons for more than 20 years since the first genocide. They live in an IDP, internally displaced person’s camp around El Fasher. And so because of this huge number of people in El Fasher, the attack on El Fasher by the RSF would definitely result in more casualties. This is number one.
Number two, in El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur, there was a walkable distance to Adre refugee camp in Eastern Chad. In El Fasher, there’s no possible way that people can flee to Chad. El Fasher is in the middle of pretty much nowhere. And it is now encircled by the RSF. And so basically people have nowhere to flee to. Adding to this, it’s now dry season in Sudan, and El Fasher is surrounded with desert lands. And so, even if people were able to flee the city of El Fasher, probably they would not be able to survive the desert. And therefore, an attack on El Fasher would definitely be a lot more tragic, and it is exactly that reason why we think our report is timely in alerting the international community and people of conscience to prevent what we have seen already in El Geneina and other parts of Darfur from happening again in El Fasher or anywhere else in Darfur.
Mark Leon Goldberg: Yeah, I mean, this is the same set of actors, once again, surrounding and trying to sack a city. You’ve well documented their intent to be genocidal. You said you are from El Fasher. What are you hearing from people in the city right now who are essentially trapped, presumably some of your friends and family?
Mutasim Ali: I’ve been speaking to people there just to know how they’re doing and how they feel about the situation, what are the ways we can help? And people are just scared. A lot of people actually gave up. I mean, there is nowhere they can go. And even if there are some pathways, people don’t have the means to leave El Fasher, and therefore people are just giving up. And they say, “We’ll wait for our fate.” This is not the first time they think of fleeing for safety. This has been a consistent way of life for them. The saddest part about this is that for a lot of people in El Fasher, it became part of their daily experience to hear gunshots and people being killed here and there. And it is unfortunate to normalize something like that. And therefore, I think people are really, really nearly giving up for what is to come because they just do not see a way out of this unless the international community acts decisively and change the course of history.
But people, they’re not really hoping a lot because the international community has already failed several times in the context of Darfur. And so that is the saddest thing that we continue to hear from people there.
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Mark Leon Goldberg: So, we are going to be spending the bulk of our conversation today discussing the actions of the Rapid Support Forces, the RSF. This is something I’ve discussed a lot on the show in the past year, but can you just describe the conduct and the activities of the RSF in Darfur since the start of this full-blown civil war a year ago in April?
Mutasim Ali: I just want to note that the RSF; now they’re fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces, but they were actually aligned together in the beginning of the Darfur conflict. They were created by the Sudanese government. They were trained by the Sudanese Armed Forces. And they were working together in committing atrocities in Darfur — they were partners in crime in the early 2000s genocide.
Now in the current war the fallout between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces occurred on April 15th, 2023. There were many reasons. Some of them a power struggle, struggle for more economic resources, fear of accountability, and the like. But what is really clear is that the two generals, the commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces, al-Burhan, and Hemedti, who is the commander of the Rapid Support Forces — His full name is Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
Mark Leon Goldberg: Better known as Hemedti.
Mutasim Ali: Yes, everybody knows him as Hemedti. And so, really, the underlying crisis between the two generals is really the competition for power.
In the context of the current war, I must note that the Rapid Support Forces, the RSF, never ceased to commit atrocities in Darfur, even during the transitional period, especially in west Darfur. During transitional period in 2019 and 2020 and 2021, the RSF committed a series of ethnically motivated attacks against the Masalit in west Darfur. Of course, there are many other incidents in North Darfur in an area called Tawilah or in Kebkabiya, or in South Darfur, Al Geneina. There are many — many. I can cite a number of atrocities committed by the RSF.
And so the RSF really never ceased to commit atrocities. The significance of the current conflict and the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces is that now it became more clear that the RSF is actually using the fact that some of the ethnic groups, say, for example Masalit in West Darfur, are siding with the Sudanese armed forces, and therefore they became the target. This is what they said in many of their statements when they launched their attack in West Darfur. And so basically the fallout between the Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese Armed Forces served as an excuse for the RSF to commit more atrocities. And so now they commit atrocities really widespread under the guise of ‘we are defending ourselves, we’re fighting for democracy, and we’re fighting the remnants of the old regime.’
And so part of their policy is to besiege cities before they actually attack them. Then they loot shops, hospitals, warehouses. And the idea was really to weaken the society and to make their attack a lot more easier to prevent any resistance. Of course, they also commit rape as a weapon of war. This has being a systematic modus operandi since early 2000s. Most of the contexts that we see today are exact same as in early 2000s.
Mark Leon Goldberg: And having covered that earlier genocide, the ostensible reason for the first genocide was that these groups would attack the civilian population from which an insurgency against the government, which was then aligned with the RSF and Janjaweed. But now you have the RSF attacking the Masalit population in West Darfur because they ostensibly believe them to be aligned with the government who they’re fighting in this civil war.
Mutasim Ali: That is precise.
Mark Leon Goldberg: So, we’ve seen mass movement of Masalit people from places where the RSF have taken over. People are kind of voting with their feet. They’re fleeing for fear of being attacked based on their ethnicity. What evidence have you compiled thus far that these attacks amount to genocide, which is a very high legal threshold to cross? I mean, we’ve seen reports since the start of the civil war of all sorts of atrocities, but what makes you certain now that these atrocities have crossed that threshold to genocide?
Mutasim Ali: The primary source of our evidence is the open-source information, right? And that is purposeful because we want to say that everything we say it is already out there. There’s nothing confidential about the evidence we cite. And so we relied heavily on reports. Some of the reports cover victims’ testimonies, especially those who fled to Eastern Chad, Adre. And so that’s really the primary source of our evidence. I must also say that the report is endorsed by world-leading experts in the field — lawyers, international juries, academics, former prosecutors, international tribunals, former prosecutor of the ICC, and former UN officials, and the like
Mark Leon Goldberg: Very comprehensive despite the fact that, or maybe because of the fact that it relies on such a volume of open source material, it really is indeed like a comprehensive collection of many of the crimes that the RSF have committed in Darfur force since the start of the conflict. But I guess I’m wondering what makes you think that these crimes rise to that level of genocide?
Mutasim Ali: The major question that we face in making analysis is in order to establish the crime of genocide, really you have to prove that the acts were committed with intent to destroy in whole or in part a protected group. There is quite agreement among most scholars and those who document the situation in Darfur that the acts were committed in Darfur are of ethnically motivated nature, right? Like, basically, targeting particular ethnic groups. These are protected groups. This was established even by the ICC in the first ever indictment against Bahir, right? Masalit is a protected group. Now, we established that the Masalit, yes, it’s a protected group. We established that the acts that were committed are genocidal acts, and now the major question is whether there is actually an intent to destroy the mislead in whole or in part.
Mark Leon Goldberg: And that’s always the most difficult part of any genocide case. I mean, you could have lots of crimes on the ground, you could have evidence of mass graves and mass killing and ethnic cleansing. But what makes genocide unique is that in order to be proven, there has to be that intent to destroy a group in a whole or in part. So, how was it that you were able to establish that genocidal intent?
Mutasim Ali: Of course, we referenced earlier incidents, right? The incitement to genocide, implicit incitement and explicit incitement. And then we compared them with recent incitement rhetoric in West Darfur, right? Like we are here to kill all the Masalit. Masalit are slaves. This is the land of Arabs and not Masalit. And kill the Masalit boys. And so we documented that very well. Although there is no written policy to say that the RSF actually intended to kill or to wipe out the Masalit, the pattern of context and the incitement followed by their actions, right? The rape and the systematic depopulation of Masalit and execution of Masalit, searching them house by house, made us believe that the only reasonable inference from all this context is the intent to destroy the Masalit in whole or in part.
As investigators, right? We are not a court of law. And therefore our standard of proof is not like the one that would be used in the court of law, right? It’s not beyond reasonable doubt. We use clear and convincing evidence, right? This is being used also in other context by the ICC as well. And therefore based on the evidence that we collected, there is no way that you can for any other than the intent to destroy the Masalit group in whole or in part.
Mark Leon Goldberg: Can you just give, by way of example, any specific evidence that you think is really kind of conclusive to your determination?
Mutasim Ali: For example, the evidence of women fleeing El Geneina, which is the capital of west Darfur towards Adre in Chad, and on their way to Adre to refugee camp in Eastern Chad, there were many RSF checkpoints. And so women with infants, like even six months old, were searched to check whether they’re males or females. If they were males, then they will be killed immediately. And the argument is that the RSF will kill the boys to prevent them from being fighters in the future. And this is sort of accusation in a mirror, right? We’re speaking of infants, six months old. And there are many incidents of this sort.
Then you will find evidence of the RSF fighters going into houses searching for Masalit just to execute them and incidents of rape. As they commit rape, they would say, “This is the land of Arabs, there will be no Masalit anymore and we will execute you all. The best option for you is to flee to Chad,” for example. And so there are really series of shocking incidents that we can continue to narrate, but all indicate that the RSF have actually intended to eradicate the Masalit from their land.
Mark Leon Goldberg: And your report makes clear, these weren’t just like isolated incidents. This was like a very common pattern of behavior over the course of the year that led to your genocide conclusion. One really interesting thing about your report is that while it does establish, I think conclusively, that RSF is committing genocide, it also suggests very strongly that certain state parties to the genocide convention like the United Arab Emirates and Chad are complicit as well. Could you describe how it is you concluded, for example, that the United Arab Emirates is also implicated in the genocide of the Masalit by the RSF?
Mutasim Ali: The relationship between the RSF and the United Arab Emirates go back to 2014 when the RSF soldiers were sent to Yemen to fight on behalf of the Emiratis and Saudis, right? They were getting a lot of financial support, military supplies, and the like. But since the outbreak of the April 2023 war, we’ve been able to document and read many other credible reports about the UAE’s direct support of the RSF. These reports include UN Panel of Experts on Sudan. Other open-source investigative journalists documented the UAE’s support through Libya, through Chad, through Central African Republic. And we’re able to also see that the UAE is using Chad as a place to support the RSF by building sort of “humanitarian hospital” in Eastern Chad in Amdjarass City. Also, not just a humanitarian hospital, Amdjarass serve as a-
Mark Leon Goldberg: It was a pretext, right? I remember reading that report, it was basically the UAE established this “hospital…”
Mutasim Ali: And airport.
Mark Leon Goldberg: In Chad, but use the idea that they were transporting humanitarian goods as a cover to actually transport arms and munitions to the RSF, which they then used to carry out their genocide against the Masalit people.
Mutasim Ali: Right. And so there was really quite extensive evidence of the UAE using Chad as a place to support the RSF. And of course, we have other confidential evidence that we have not used in our report. But again, the UAE’s support is quite well documented, including, as I mentioned, by the UN Panel of Experts on Sudan. And actually even the U.S. found those reporting as credible.
Mark Leon Goldberg: It seems at this point you have this situation where the most powerful army in Sudan is the RSF. They are committing genocide against the Masalit people and are being supported by a very wealthy country that carries a lot of diplomatic weight in the UAE and the neighboring country, Chad.
Mutasim Ali: Absolutely.
Mark Leon Goldberg: It’s like a recipe for complete disaster.
Mutasim Ali: Right. And by the way, the UAE’s support or complicity is not only because of sending military supplies to the RSF through Chad or Central African Republic or Libya, but also the fact that some of the RSF-affiliated companies are based in the UAE. For example, some of the companies that were recently sanctioned by the U.S. government, by the Canadian government, by the UK government, and by the EU as well, Junaid and Tradive.
Mark Leon Goldberg: And these are basically like front companies that are used to make money for the RSF.
Mutasim Ali: Exactly. And therefore what we are saying is that under the genocide convention, to which the UAE is third party, the UAE could have acted to prevent, right? But because it has leverage over the RSF, right? And it failed to do so, this is number one. And second, it is actually also complicit in providing funds and arms. And there is no chance that the RSF could actually sustain this long fight without having a backing from a state like the UAE.
Mark Leon Goldberg: So, we are speaking on Thursday, May 2nd. And by the time this episode is released, it may be the fact that the RSF is attacking or has already attacked one of the largest cities in the region, El Fasher. The United States government, the UN, everyone is saying, “Please do not attack this city. This is going to cause a humanitarian catastrophe.” If indeed the RSF does carry out this attack on El Fasher, what would you expect to happen based on all that you know about the RSF?
Mutasim Ali: So, definitely the consequences will be more catastrophic in terms of numbers, right? Than what we have seen in El Geneina.
Mark Leon Goldberg: The Capital of West Darfur, which RSF sacked over their last summer.
Mutasim Ali: Right. And there are a couple of reasons why I believe that El Fasher will be more tragic. El Fasher now is home to, according to the UN, 800,000 people. And I’m from North Darfur, El Fasher, and I believe this number is inaccurate. The population in El Fasher is way, way bigger than this. But let’s rely on the UN numbers, there are about 800,000 people — That most of these people are already displaced from other places that are captured by the RSF. Others have been displaced persons for more than 20 years since the first genocide, right? They live in an IDP, internally displaced person’s camp around El Fasher. And so because of this huge number of people in El Fasher, the attack on El Fasher by the RSF would definitely result in more casualties. This is number one.
Number two, in El Geneina, capital of West Darfur, there was perhaps a walkable distance to Adre refugee camp in Eastern Chad. In El Fasher, there’s no possible way that people can flee to Chad. El Fasher is in the middle of pretty much nowhere. And it is now encircled by the RSF. And so basically people have nowhere to flee to. Adding to this, it’s now dry season in Sudan, and El Fasher is surrounded with desert lands. And so, even if people were able to flee the city of El Fasher, probably they would not be able to survive the desert. And therefore, an attack on El Fasher would definitely be a lot more tragic, and it is exactly that reason why we think our report is timely in alerting the international community and people of conscious to prevent what we have seen already in El Geneina and other parts of Darfur from happening again in El Fasher or anywhere else in Darfur.
Mark Leon Goldberg: Yeah, I mean, this is the same set of actors, once again, surrounding and trying to sack a city. You’ve well documented their intent to be genocidal. You said you are from El Fasher. What are you hearing from people in the city right now who are essentially trapped, presumably some of your friends and family?
Mutasim Ali: Absolutely. Speaking to people there just to know how they’re doing and how they feel about the situation, what are the ways we can help? And people are just scared, right? A lot of people actually gave up. I mean, there is nowhere they can go. And even if there are some pathways, people don’t have the means to leave El Fasher, and therefore people are just giving up. And they say, “We’ll wait for our fate.” This is not the first time they think of fleeing for safety. This has been a consistent way of life for them. The saddest part about this is that for a lot of people in El Fasher, it became part of their daily experience to hear gunshots and people being killed here and there. And it is unfortunate to normalize something like that. And therefore, I think people are really, really nearly giving up for what is to come because they just do not see a way out of this unless the international community acts decisively and change the course of history.
But people, they’re not really hoping a lot because the international community has already failed several times in the context of Darfur. And so that is the saddest image that we continue to hear from people there.
Mark Leon Goldberg: Do you suspect that this attack will happen?
Mutasim Ali: You know, I have reasons to believe that this attack is imminent and it is really a matter of when, not if, because the RSF is determined, and I take them by their words. They take El Fasher as a military objective. And they encircled El Fasher, they razed nine to 11 villages West El Fasher. They took one of the biggest cities in Northern El Fasher called Mellit. This is sort of a gateway to El Fasher. It’s a big city in Darfur that most of the humanitarian aid or supplies come through Mellit. And so everything that the RSF is doing these days, they really indicated they’re attacking El Fasher fashion, and it is just about when. And then, of course, in addition to that, the same incitement that we have heard against the Masalit in West Darfur are now being used against the Zaghawa and Fur for in North Darfur.
Mark Leon Goldberg: And these are two other ethnic groups. The Masalit are not predominant in Northern Darfur, but the Zaghawa and the Fur are predominant in El Fasher. And you’re concerned that you’re hearing the same kind of anti-Masalit rhetoric that we heard earlier now, again, targeting these other non-Arab ethnic groups?
Mutasim Ali: Absolutely. And these are the exactly indications that will make us believe that the RSF is going to attack El Fasher unless there is really a big thing happens on the international communities front. And, of course, the ongoing recruitments from all parts of Darfur, the RSF now is taking control of four other states in Darfur. Now they have access to a lot more resources but also easy to reach to people and recruit people in other states to come and join their fighters in North Darfur. And so there is really an ongoing recruitment now, combined with deliberate incitements against particular ethnic groups, Fur and Zaghawa in this case, and that’s what makes us believe that the RSF will attack El Fasher, and it is about when and not if.
Mark Leon Goldberg: As you’ve said, this attack really does seem imminent. It could be that by the time this episode is released that attack is ongoing. I’m wondering, though, is stopping the RSF from attacking El Fasher at this point a matter of international diplomacy, specifically countries like the United States more heavily leaning on RSF enablers like the UAE, to reign them in, is that the most perhaps direct pressure point that might force the RSF to change their calculus at this point? Or is there anything that could change their calculus?
Mutasim Ali: Surely, given the imminent threat that people in El Fasher are facing, many thing that the best way to prevent atrocities is peacekeeping mission, right? But given the current state of affairs at the security council and the dynamics there, this is unlikely. And so, what is the next thing that probably will influence the attack on El Fasher? Definitely a direct pressure on the UAE, given the leverage that the UAE has over the RSF and its leaders, this is going to be extremely helpful, again, because the RSF relies heavily on the UAE for support. Second, I think direct pressure on perhaps even targeted sanctions or even an arrest warrant against the commander of the RSF, Hemedti, that would definitely influence the situation as well. One of the reasons why the RSF fighters continue to commit atrocities without fear, and oftentimes actually broadcast its own social media platforms, right? Twitter, TikTok, Facebook, and the like, because they do not fear accountability.
There has never been a transitional justice process even during the transitional period. And so, that prevalence of impunity sort of rewarded the RSF because the war is paying off for them. They can loot, they can make more money, and, therefore, by targeting their leaders, they may fear. And so I think those are the direct things that people can do at the international level, but also I think that would not guarantee 100% that the RSF will not attack El Fasher. That definitely will influence the situation but probably will delay the attack on El Fasher. But I do think that the international community must prepare for the worst, and the worst is that the RSF will attack El Fasher. How the international community can prepare for that, I think they must provide safe areas and safe passage for civilians who may flee areas of risk.
Mark Leon Goldberg: So, your answer just now in the report on genocide in Darfur demands a key question — What opportunities exist for accountability for war crimes that have been committed to include genocide?
Mutasim Ali: On normal circumstances, the most effective way to hold perpetrators to account will be domestic accountability mechanisms. But this is absent in the case of Sudan. We don’t have even a functioning government in the country, and therefore we cannot rely on national or domestic mechanism. And so, now we’re left with few options at the international level and perhaps at the regional level, at the African Union, maybe if there is a political will, they can establish special tribunals to prosecute perpetrators. But I also see that as unlikely given how some of the African states are welcoming Hemedti and the leaders of the RSF. In South Africa, for example, in the Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Djibouti and the like, even Rwanda. And therefore, I think the only way is international mechanisms. That includes the International Criminal Court, the ICC. And now I know that the prosecution general is investigating the situation in Darfur, especially in West Darfur.
And I hope that there will be arrest warrant sometime soon. Of course, there are already seven individuals have been indicted by the I CCC before, only one person has been on trial right now, right? Which is in a service, unfortunately, makes a lot of people do not believe in their international mechanism. But this is the only thing that we have at this point in time. Then the second, and I think this is what we rely on a lot, is the case before International Court of Justice, the ICJ. The ICJ will, hopefully, what we will do is to bring a case against states that we identified as complicit in the Darfur genocide. But as an organization or private attorneys will not be able to bring a case before ICJ.
Mark Leon Goldberg: You need a government.
Mutasim Ali: We need a government.
Mark Leon Goldberg: Do you have any governments that you think might step up as plaintiffs in a case against…. the way the ICJ works is that the ICJ is where countries go to sue other countries. The countries that would be defendants here presumably would be the UAE and Chad. The ICJ is not a forum where the RSF would defend itself because it’s not a state actor. So, are there like plaintiffs in the waiting, countries that would take up the cause?
Mutasim Ali: We haven’t reached out to states at this point in time, but this is going to be one of our missions to make sure that the ICJ will remain a relevant accountability forum, at least for states complicit in the genocide in Darfur. As to the RSF, of course, there is a lack on international legal frameworks that we cannot really prosecute entities. There’s no legal framework for that. But I think for the RSF, we leave that to the ICC and other hopefully additional mechanisms.
Mark Leon Goldberg: Because the ICC, of course, does have the capacity to prosecute individuals whether they’re state actors or non-state actors, as opposed to the ICJ, which only adjudicates disputes between states. I don’t know. I heard South Africa is interested in genocide, so maybe you can get them on board.
Mutasim Ali: I think this is an excellent idea. I was wondering whether, I mean, we would hope that the country like South Africa will take a case like this looking at the continent, but definitely we’ll pursue every avenue to make sure that the ICJ will remain an available mechanism. And of course, we definitely support the ICC in everything that they do and we encourage in all the meetings that we have with governments to support the ICC’s investigations. Unfortunately, the ICC cannot try all individuals involved in the atrocities. We know that thousands of people have engaged in atrocities. The ICC may only have capacity to try senior leaders. But I think that will still be important until hopefully there will be peace in Sudan and there will be an actual true transitional justice in the country to prosecute all involved.
Mark Leon Goldberg: Mutasim, thank you so much for your time and for this valuable report.
Mutasim Ali: Thank you very much, Mark. I appreciate it.
Mark Leon Goldberg: Thanks for listening to Global Dispatches. The show is produced by me, Mark Leon Goldberg. It is edited and mixed by Levi Sharpe. If you are listening on Apple Podcasts, make sure to follow the show and enable automatic downloads to get new episodes as soon as they’re released. On Spotify, tap the bell icon to get a notification when we publish new episodes. And, of course, please visit globaldispatches.org to get on our free mailing list, get in touch with me, and access our full archive. Thank you.