Are We Close to a Ceasefire in Gaza?

A crucial moment in the Gaza crisis.

We are in a very odd moment of diplomacy in the Gaza crisis. On the one hand, the prospect of reaching a ceasefire agreement has never been as tantalizingly close as it is today. There is a deal on the table that the Israeli government has sent to Hamas. The United Nations Security Council endorsed this deal in a near-unanimous vote earlier this week. Crucially, Hamas has thus far not rejected it and has reacted somewhat favorably to it.

On the other hand, the ceasefire negotiations could completely collapse at any moment. The depth of support for this deal in the Israeli government is paper-thin at best. Meanwhile, Hamas seems to be dragging its feet and apparently insisting on changes to the agreement that would not be acceptable to Israel. Meanwhile, the carnage in Gaza continues, and the prospect of a wider regional war sparked by conflict in Northern Israel and Lebanon remains acute.

The deal on the table has three parts. First, it would include a six-week ceasefire and the release of most of the Israeli hostages and a large number of Palestinians in Israeli military detention. During this six-week period, humanitarian relief would surge into Gaza as negotiators work toward a permanent ceasefire, the second phase. Finally, after a permanent ceasefire has been reached, there would be meaningful political progress on certain issues in the Palestine-Israeli portfolio and a reconstruction plan for Gaza.

There are two ways this can go right now. One is a ceasefire deal that leads to a meaningful cessation of hostilities and reduction of suffering in Gaza. The other is a doom cycle of escalation that could lead to a wider war in the Middle East.

My guest, Joel Braunold, is a Middle East peacemaker. I got to know him years ago through his work on grassroots people-to-people peacebuilding in Israel and Palestine. Today, he is the managing director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace. In our conversation, he explains the negotiating positions of both the Israeli government and Hamas as they weigh this proposal and enter negotiations over its potential implementation.

Joel Braunold has a really nuanced understanding of these issues that I think you will find helpful as you follow the progress (or lack thereof) towards this ceasefire agreement. The Global Dispatches podcast episode is freely available across all podcast listening platforms.

Also, this week I speak with Michael Kugelman about the surprising election results in India and what a chastened Narendra Modi means for Indian politics and foreign policy going forward.

Finally, I hope you are excited as I am for the launch of “To Save Us From Hell,” my new podcast about the United Nations! Our first episode drops next week. This is the first-ever weekly podcast chat show about the UN. Each week, you’ll get expert takes on the latest news and happenings from around the United Nations and broader UN system.

I hope to see you there — and I hope you can support our launch with a paid subscription.