How the American Aid Package Will Impact the War in Ukraine

A former top Pentagon official for Ukraine explains how the $60 billion will be spent

Photo by Karollyne Videira Hubert on Unsplash

American aid is on its way to Ukraine. This week, Congress passed a $95 billion foreign aid bill that includes about $60 billion for Ukraine. This aid had been stalled for months, mostly due to Republican intransigence in the House of Representatives. But now, the funding is being released, and according to my interview guest today, it will have a significant impact on the battlefield in Ukraine. 

Evelyn Farkas is the Executive Director of the McCain Institute and served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Ukraine, Russia, and Eurasia during the Obama administration. We discuss the influence this new aid package will have on the trajectory of the conflict and why its timing is critical. Farkas recently returned from Ukraine, where officials told her they were bracing for a new summer offensive by Russia. This aid package may change Russia’s calculations around mounting this new offensive.

Our conversation is freely available across all podcast listening platforms. A full transcript of the interview is available immediately for our paying supporters.

Transcript edited for clarity

Mark Leon Goldberg: We are speaking probably just a few moments before the U.S. Senate is going to take up this recently passed House package of aid to include about $60 billion of aid for Ukraine. How will this money be spent?

Evelyn Farkas: Well, first of all, on much-needed ammunition for the frontline troops in Ukraine fighting off the Russian advance. They have been outnumbered anywhere from seven-to-one to ten-to-one in terms of ammunition. That’s not just bullets, but missiles. They need simple bullets, they need artillery, they need the ability to keep the Russians at bay.

The second major item that they need are air defense systems. And we’ve seen a lot of media reporting already on the German government urging the U.S. government to provide more Patriot batteries. Certainly, the Ukrainian government has been putting pressure on everyone, stating that the recent damage that was done to the largest power generator in Ukraine might have been avoided if there was air defense, and that the recent civilian deaths that occurred in Odessa and elsewhere could have been avoided with air defense systems. So, air defense systems is the number two after just ammunition across the board.

Mark Leon Goldberg: On that question of air defense systems, it does seem that the Russian tactic of late has been to try to just deplete the reserves of Ukrainian air defenses by sending barrage after a barrage of missile attacks. Do

you think that this new aid package will help stem that tide?

Evelyn Farkas: Well, it will give the Ukrainians an ability to fight back. Of course, the Russians will keep firing what they can, though they also need to be mindful of their defense industrial base. The Economist had a piece a month ago about the fact that the Russians were running out of gun barrels. And the manufacture of these gun barrels is something that’s done with unique tools, and that the technology and the tools are Western developed. So, Russia would have to get them by circumventing export controls.

The point is, there are stresses on the Russian side as well. But it’s critical that the Ukrainians get this ammunition, get this weaponry so that they can at least hold back what is right now an attempt by the Russians to advance.

What we think is coming is a full-frontal assault on Ukraine, a new offensive from Russia. And I should add, I was in Ukraine three weeks ago, and that is something that the Ukrainians really highlighted — they expect a Russian offensive in the spring or summer.

Mark Leon Goldberg: Can you dive into that a bit deeper? What is making the Ukrainians think that, and what have they been doing to prepare? What, exactly might a potential new Russian summer offensive look like?