Is North Korea Preparing For War With South Korea?
A uniquely disturbing policy shift from Kim Jong Un
Over the last few weeks there has been a decided change of tone and tenor from North Korea. On January 15, Kim Jong Un formally declared South Korea to be “an enemy state.” This is significant for the fact that since the end of the Korean War, the line from Pyongyang was more or less that South Korea was like a wayward relative and would ultimately be reunified with the North. But now, according to Kim and changes he's enacting to the North Korean constitution, the state of South Korea is Enemy Number One.
This move comes on the heels of several geopolitical trends that suggest to some longtime North Korea watchers that Kim is readying for war.
On the line with me to explain the significance of this official change in North Korea's policy towards South Korea, why this change is happening now, and what can be done to deter of constrain Kim Jong Un is Sue Mi Terry. She is a former CIA analyst, long time North Korea expert and producer of the new documentary about North Korea called Beyond Utopia. Read her new piece in Foreign Affairs.
The full episode is freely available across all podcast platforms. The full transcript is immediately available for paid subscribers.
Mark Leon Goldberg We are used to provocations from Kim Jong Un. It's sort of part of the background noise of international affairs at this point. But what has he been saying and doing over the last few weeks that is raising particular concern?
Sue Mi Terry He actually went against his father and grandfather's policy, which is a very concerning development because his grandfather is a godlike figure in North Korea. He said that reunification with South Korea is an impossible thing, that he's no longer going to pursue a unification policy and that the two Koreas no longer have any kind of kinship. Rather they are two separate states -- belligerent states that are in the middle of war. So Kim Jong Un renounced the unification policy and then declared that South Korea is now considered the most hostile country in the world -- and that war is inevitable. So while we are used to all kinds of rhetoric coming out of North Korea — turning Seoul into sea of fire and all that —this is still an unusual development. You've got a lot of Korea watchers concerned about this. And we're all debating what this means.
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Mark Leon Goldberg What do you think explains this change of tone and behavior on the part of Kim Jong un?
Sue Mi Terry Of course, intention is one of the hardest things to understand. And we don't know for sure, but I think there may be a few explanations. The most concerning explanation is that by declaring South Korea to be North Korea's primary enemy, and then by saying there is no longer a kinship, they are basically being able to justify using nuclear weapons in a future conflict. Because you're not using it against family, right? Koreans feel like they are part of one nation, one country, a homogeneous ethnic group, and so on. So by declaring that South Korea is a foreign hostile state, is he gearing up to be able to use nuclear weapons and justify it because you are using it against a hostile state, not against your family member? It is a concerning development to the extent that Kim is really establishing an ideological, moral, or logical basis for aggression that could include nuclear weapons.
If you want to interpret it in a sort of optimistic way, then people are saying that Kim Jong Un can one day normalize relations with South Korea because it's a foreign country. Like how the US and China were able to normalize relations after 20 years of not talking to each other. So that could also be possible — that's at least out there as a theory. But I do think that the most realistic explanation is that they would be able to justify greater aggressive actions against South Korea. But I still don't think Kim Jong has made a decision to go to war.
Full transcript immediately available below the fold for paying subscribers. Edited for clarity.
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