Israel, Hezbollah, Iran and the Sad Logic of Escalation
I interview (again) the expert who predicted all this
When I spoke to Dalia Dassa Kaye back in early November 2023, she more or less predicted the escalatory cycle that is currently unfolding between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. In our conversation nearly a year ago, she explained the dynamics that might lead a contained conflict in Gaza to a wider war between Israel and Iran, which could potentially drag in the United States.
Needless to say, events over the last several days are unfolding in ways that she predicted. So, I wanted to have her back on the show to explain why the logic of escalation has taken hold and where this conflict might head next.
Dalia Dassa Kaye is a senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations. In our interview, she explains the logic of escalation that is driving Israel, Hezbollah and Iran towards an all-out regional war that may end up dragging in the United States. It’s a disturbing scenario that is becoming more likely by the day.
The full episode is freely available across all podcast listening platforms. The transcript is available immediately below the fold for our paying supporters.
Excerpt edited for clarity
Mark Leon Goldberg: The U.S. has been trading fire with Iran proxies already, but is there any circumstance you foresee that could drag American forces in direct conflict with Iran?
Dalia Dassa Kaye: I think this is a real risk, and I think we shouldn’t be alarmist, but we have to be realistic that there are a number of scenarios that could most definitely involve the U.S. — more than the U.S. is already involved. Let’s also acknowledge the U.S. has already been assisting Israel in fending off these missile attacks. So the U.S. is already in this war. But it could be involved much more significantly in a few ways: One is the Americans are already vulnerable to attacks from Iranian aligned militia forces, especially from Iraq, that have threatened to retaliate against Americans if they join the Israelis in a counterattack.
But also it depends on how Israel responds to the missile barrage it just faced. And if Israel goes after nuclear sites, that would be more likely to lead to an Iranian response. And if the Iranians decide to up the escalation ladder and start targeting civilian sites within Israel or infrastructure, and you have large number of Israeli civilians killed or in harm’s way, it’s hard to see the United States not coming in very forcefully to defend Israel. The other is if Israel targets infrastructure with Iran. That’s another possibility. A lot of folks are talking about the possibility of oil sites getting targeted, ports, other infrastructure within Iran. That would move Israel into the realm of not just being in a fight against the Islamic Republic, but against the Iranian state itself.
That would lead to, no question, serious escalation. The Iranians have already threatened if their oil facilities are hit, that they would hit oil facilities in the Gulf. And the U.S. has forces stationed in many of these Gulf states. So, it’s hard to see the U.S. not getting involved under that kind of scenario. So unfortunately, many of these escalatory possibilities will involve the United States, which is why I think, again, we see the Biden administration so concerned about this war spilling beyond Gaza and, sadly, a year into this very, very cruel and brutal war, we are there. It’s not hypothetical anymore.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Global Dispatches to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.