Libya is Poised to Become a Huge Crisis in 2020

The crisis in Libya is about to get much worse. Nine months ago a renegade general named Khalifa Hiftar launched an attack on the internationally recognized and UN-backed government in Tripoli. That assault suddenly ended UN-brokered peace process that seemed to be on the brink of success.

In the ensuing months, the sides have been locked into a stalemate, with fighting mostly confined to neighborhoods on the outskirts of Tripoli. But, recently Hiftar's foreign backers have stepped up their support. This includes Russia, which has deployed troops and equipment to Hiftar this fall. Meanwhile, Turkey is raising the possibility that it will send troops to defend Tripoli from Hiftar's attack.

The situation is now extremely perilous. Outside forces, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates are fueling this conflict. Meanwhile, key diplomatic players in Europe and the United States are sending mixed signals about their preferred outcome. So, at the end of 2019 it could very wel…