Meanwhile in Myanmar: A Major Inflection Point in the Civil War

The Junta suddenly looks very weak

In February 2021, the Myanmar military toppled the civilian government lead by Aung San Suu Kyi. Mass protests followed the coup and were brutally suppressed by the Junta. An anti-Junta insurgency soon emerged, but for much of this conflict, the military has had the upper hand: The opposition was split between ethnic majority Bamar groups, backed by a government-in-exile, and numerous armed militias from Myamar’s many ethnic minority groups. Superior weaponry and air power meant that these disparate opposition groups were on the ropes.

But the trajectory of this conflict changed rather dramatically on October 27.

A number of these different militias joined forces for a series of highly coordinated attacks. This new alliance captured strategic towns, roads and garrisons, including a key region on the border with China. The Junta sustained heavy loses and are suddenly facing the prospect of defeat. The Burmese military now looks as weak as it ever has in nearly 40 years of on and off again control of Myanmar.

I’m joined on the podcast today by Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. We kick off discussing the outbreak of conflict in Myanmar following the 2021 coup. Gregory Poling then does a good job of breaking down the complexities of a civil war that involves a wide number of ethnic armed groups, many of which have now joined in this new alliance to defeat Burmese military. We also discuss the role of China and the United States, and whether or not we can expect the full collapse of the Myanmar military Junta in the near future.

If you have 25 minute and want some expert analysis of the current situation in Myanmar, have a listen. Should the Junta collapse—which is suddenly a real possibility — this episode will help you understand why.

The episode is freely available on all podcast listening apps. This link will take you there.

The full transcript of my interview with Gregory Poling is available immediately below the fold for paying subscribers.