My Nobel Peace Prize Prediction

The announcement comes Friday

I’m a Nobel Peace Prize nerd.

Of the nearly 1,000 Global Dispatches podcast episodes I’ve recorded over the last 12 years, my interview with a member of the Nobel Peace Prize Committee is definitely in the top 10.

There are just five people, selected by the Norwegian Parliament, who decide the Nobel Peace Prize. When I spoke to Asle Toje in 2019, he explained that he has a 50-year vow of silence regarding the internal proceedings of the Nobel Committee. Still, he was able to explain generally how the process and deliberations work, the criteria they use to determine the winner, and what impact he believes the Nobel Peace Prize has on international affairs more broadly.

How to Win the Nobel Peace Prize

It is relatively easy to be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. There is a slew of categories of people who are able to submit nominations. This includes pretty much any university professor and any legislator anywhere in the world, who can nominate someone for the Nobel Peace Prize. (And among this group, there are certainly some cranks.)

To actually win requires a very thorough vetting process in which the Nobel Committee whittles the nominations down to a shortlist and then solicits the advice of outside advisors with specific subject matter expertise. The five Nobel Peace Prize Committee jurors then deliberate among themselves and take a vote. Majority rules.

Who I think will win the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize

This year, there are 286 candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize, of which 197 are individuals and 89 are organisations. Of those 286 candidates, I have a prediction for who will win the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize.

Sudan’s “Emergency Response Rooms”

When Sudan's civil war erupted in April 2023, something at once very common and profoundly extraordinary took place.

As always happens when crisis and catastrophe strike anywhere in the world, neighbors help neighbors. People find ways to take care of themselves and their community the best they can. In the first few weeks of Sudan's civil war, neighborhoods, mostly in and around Khartoum, began to set up what they called "Emergency Response Rooms." This is a bit of a misnomer because while some Emergency Response Rooms do provide medical assistance, others are communal kitchens, daycare centers, or provide maternal health services among many other things. In each case, they were created by the community in response to community needs. Significantly, many of the organizers of the first Emergency Response Rooms in Sudan were those who participated in the pro-democracy movement that preceded Sudan’s civil war. They tapped into existing social networks to support the work.

This so-called “mutual aid” happens across cultures and around the world in times of crisis. That’s not new. Rather, what is unique about mutual aid in Sudan is that these Emergency Response Rooms have organized themselves into a coherent network that links very local, neighborhood-level humanitarian responses to international donors. These Emergency Response Rooms provide a way for me, in Denver, to support a local soup kitchen in Darfur while hundreds of trucks of World Food Program aid languish over the border in Chad, unable to cross for logistical or security reasons.

But what is perhaps even more significant about Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms is that, in the midst of a civil war that is tearing the country apart, they have developed a homegrown system of oversight and democratic governance that may be the one thing that keeps the country together. There are currently over 700 Emergency Response Rooms spread throughout the country, with more coming online every week. They are linked together through a bureaucratic structure that connects hyper-local service delivery to regional and national coordination councils to help oversee and guide the work.

By the numbers, Sudan is the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. The state has mostly disintegrated. In its place is this growing national network of community-based organizations that provide services — healthcare, schooling, food relief, and much more — that would otherwise be the remit of the state. The network of Emergency Response Rooms and the governance structure they have created are at once delivering humanitarian assistance and promoting national cohesion. This is peacebuilding amidst a brutal civil war.

A Nobel Peace Prize would give much needed visibility to Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms. In an interview I conducted earlier this week with the external spokesperson for their national umbrella group, I was told they are desperate for resources that would help them scale in a way commensurate to the needs they face. Simply put, they need more money. (You can donate here. I did).

Beyond scaling up in Sudan, a Nobel Peace Prize would raise the profile of the entire model of humanitarianism that Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms are pioneering. If that model can be replicated elsewhere where disaster strikes, it could transform the entire humanitarian system — and do so in a way that leverages humanitarian relief in support of peace. That would be revolutionary.

I do hope Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms do end up winning tomorrow. If so, I will immediately publish for the Global Dispatches Podcast that interview I recorded on Tuesday. If another person or group wins the prize, the episode will wait till Monday! Either way, you can find it here.