The ICC is Investigating War Crimes in Israel and Gaza. Indictments are Coming

What to expect from the International Criminal Court

We’ve gotten hundreds of new subscribers over the last few days so allow me to re-introduce myself. I’ve been covering the United Nations and the International Criminal Court for nearly 20 years, which is about as long as the ICC has existed. This piece is drawn from interviews and my own reporting. Please support our work by upgrading your subscription.

ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan at the Rafah Border Crossing on October 30. Screencap from video

ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan is still fairly new to his job. The British barrister became the top prosecutor at the International Criminal Court following a stint heading a UN team investigating crimes committed by the Islamic State, leading to a landmark conclusion in 2021 that ISIS committed genocide against the Yazidi religious community.

Khan is the third top prosecutor of the ICC. In his two-and-a-half years in the role, Khan has proven to be bolder and more politically adept than his two predecessors. Just months after taking office, Khan announced that Americans would not be included in the ICC’s Afghanistan probes, focusing instead on crimes committed by the Taliban and ISIS. This move was clearly intended to re-set the United States’ relationship with the ICC, which has ranged over the years from tacit support to more recently, outright hostility. (Indeed, Khan’s predecessor was targeted by the Trump administration with individual sanctions, including a visa ban and asset freeze!)

Khan also moved extraordinary swiftly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Speaking from the mass atrocity site in Bucha, Ukraine he declared it a crime scene and vowed to pursue accountability. And in perhaps the boldest act in the 21 year history of the International Criminal Court, Khan released an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, who is wanted along with another Russian official for the mass kidnapping of Ukrainian children.

These moves put him in the good graces of the United States and western powers. But a just-opened investigation into war crimes and crimes against humanity in Israel and Gaza is extremely fraught. He is now on a collision course with the United States and other important international players.

The key question going forward is whether or not his political acumen and his legal strategy for Israel and Gaza can blunt a coming diplomatic firestorm. Because make no mistake: indictments are coming for senior Hamas leaders and Israeli military and government officials. It is only a matter of when.

Below the fold for paying subscribers:

• A description of Karim Khan’s activities in Egypt this week, and what it suggests about his investigation in Israel and Palestine.

• An explanation of how the ICC goes about investigating war crimes

• A preview of the ICC’s strategy for going after Hamas leaders and Israeli officials.