Two Years on, The War in Ukraine is at a Turning Point

Why American Support for Ukraine has wavered

Photo by Yehor Milohrodskyi on Unsplash

Last week, the United States Senate passed a foreign aid bill that included about $60 billion for Ukraine's defense. The vote was overwhelmingly bi-partisan, but the ultimate fate of continued American aid for Ukraine now depends on action in the House of Representatives where the outcome is unknown.

Mounting uncertainty around America's commitment to Ukraine's defense comes at the two year anniversary of Russia's invasion. The apparent wavering today is a far cry from the overwhelmingly broad support for Ukraine in the early days of the war. So how did we get to this point? And how might the passage or non-passage of a spending bill to support Ukraine impact the trajectory of the war and the transatlantic alliance that has emerged in Ukraine's defense?

Joining me to discuss these questions and more is Peter Van Praagh, President of HFX, a Washington, DC based organization that convenes the Halifax International Security Forum. We kick off discussing the action in the United States Congress before having a broader conversation about the necessity of international support for Ukraine and the implications should that support waver. 

The podcast episode is freely available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube and all podcast listening platforms.

Here’s an excerpt of our conversation, edited for clarity. The full transcript is immediately available below the fold for paying subscribers.

Mark Leon Goldberg: I do want your view on what not passing this this legislation would look like. What it would mean for both Ukraine's defense and also more broadly, for the transatlantic alliance that has coalesced around Europe's defense?

Peter Van Praagh: So number one is this will put Ukraine in a very, very difficult spot. The Ukrainians are fighting, they are dying. They are hungry. They're cold. They've been doing this for two years. And part of what has driven them is knowing that the United States and the American people stand behind them. That is a really reassuring aspect of the fight, and that is something that is really important to everybody. Everybody who believes in freedom all around the world looks to the United States as its model and as the strength behind it. And and so it's going to be a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. But the Ukrainian people, as they've already shown, are not going to wave a white flag and surrender. The Ukrainians are going to be fighting with every last bullet. They'll be fighting with sticks. They'll make their own ammunition, they'll make their own bombs. And this will turn into a very bloody and violent conflict.

The Ukrainians have already essentially destroyed the entire Russian military. I mean, this has been the best deal that the United States military has had since, frankly, the American Revolution. Our ally Ukraine, without a single American casualty, has essentially taken out the military of one of our main adversaries. And so this is an incredible investment for Americans. And the Ukrainians have done an incredible job saving all of us. And I don't believe that they're going to stop fighting. So that's number one.

Number two, the skeptics are just going to throw up their hands and say, we told you all along, the United States is not a reliable partner. We're in this alone. And we're going to see a split with those Europeans who are going to be committed to freedom and democracy and those Europeans who are not. And there's going to be a battle then, for the loyalty of some European countries between Russia and between China. Those very United States senators who didn't support this bill because of issues related to Ukraine have to be aware of the message this sends to China. And this essentially tells China that the United States are not going to defend its allies for the long haul, that the Americans will be in it for show. And then when things get tough, they're going to pack up and go home with their tail between their legs. And that's really a message of retreat. And that is what Donald Trump wants to demonstrate to the world. You know, Donald Trump foreign policy is essentially admitting that the Americans don't have the courage to stay in the fight.