Why a New UN Security Council Resolution on Hormuz is Probably Doomed

A flawed diplomatic strategy is afoot

The United States is making another push for a UN Security Council resolution to compel Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. An early draft of the resolution calls on Iran to stop imposing transit tolls, declare where it has laid mines, cease attacking ships, and more generally return the status of the strait to what it was before the war.

This all may seem reasonable. The problem, however, is twofold. First, the last time a similar resolution came to a vote, it faced a double veto by Russia and China. Both countries insisted on language condemning the U.S. and Israeli attacks and did not want to pass a resolution that might in some way justify further attacks on Iran. It’s hard to imagine this new resolution will allay those concerns.

But perhaps more importantly, even if this resolution does somehow get past those vetoes, the fact remains that Iran is insisting on keeping Hormuz closed. The resolution itself can’t open the Strait. Only Iran can. And that can only happen through direct diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran. If and when the U.S. and Iran come to an agreement, then the Security Council can step in to enforce it. This resolution will fail in its intended effect even if it passes, precisely because it represents an inversion of the proper diplomatic order of operations.

In this clip from today’s episode of To Save Us From Hell Anjali and I discuss what this draft resolution circulated by the US entails — and why it is probably doomed from the start.

Our full conversation is below the fold for our paying subscribers — we also discuss a new American effort to squeeze the UN budget even tighter and the latest from a major nuclear security meeting underway at the United Nations.

You can also access the full episode here on Substack or wherever you listen to your podcasts.