Will the UN Declare a Famine in Gaza?

It all depends on the data

When United Nations or humanitarian officials invoke “famine” they are referring to something very specific. In UN parlance, famine does not simply mean that a lot of people are starving. Rather, famine is a quantitative threshold that is at the extreme end a food security spectrum.

The UN calls this spectrum the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and it was developed as a tool to alert policy makers and humanitarian groups about changes to food security in specific geographical areas. There are five levels of food security, from Normal (Phase 1) to Catastrophe (Phase 5). Within level 5, there’s a special designation for famine.

For an area to cross the threshold into a Phase 5-Famine three measurable conditions must be met. First, at least 20% of the population must be starving because of extreme food shortages. Second, 30% of children under the age of five must be experiencing acute malnutrition, which can be measured by a condition known as “wasting.” Finally, the mortality rate must be double the average, which for adults means 2 deaths per 10,000 people a day, and for children means 4 deaths per 10,000 people per day.

There is formal process for collecting and analyzing data around each of these criteria that leaves little room for subjective judgement. If the data suggests that these thresholds are met, a group of independent experts known as the Famine Review Committee steps in to assess the quality of the data and makes the final call.

Crucially, a famine is only declared after these conditions are met. This means that by the time the Famine Review Committee issues a famine declaration, people are already dying in massive numbers.

What the Data Tells Us About Famine in Gaza

About a month ago, the IPC released its first major assessment of the food security situation in Gaza since the October 7th Hamas attack and the Israeli military campaign. 17 UN and international aid agencies contributed to this report. Data was gathered, in part, during the humanitarian pause in late November.

In nearly 20 years of covering humanitarian crises around the world, the findings were as alarming as I’ve ever seen.