Will War Resume Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnic Armenian enclave within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan. In the early 1990s Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a bloody war resulting in Armenia's de-facto control of Nagorno-Karabakh.
For most of the last 30 years this was a frozen conflict with occasional flareups and only fitful progress towards a diplomatic and political resolution. Then, in September 2020 Azerbaijan launched an offensive resulting in the rout of the Armenian army and the capture of large swaths of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia brokered a ceasefire.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shaken up that ceasefire agreement and over the course of 2022, Azerbaijan has expanded its control of key strategic territories in the region.
According to my guest today, Olesya Vartanyan, there is a high risk that Azerbaijan may soon press its military advantage and resume a full scale conflict in the region.
Olesya Vartanyan is the International Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus region. We kick off discussing a worsening humanitarian crisis in parts of Nagorno-Karabakh sparked by a blockade of a key corridor linking Armenia to key parts of Nagorno-Karabakh. We then discuss trends in the conflict and recent diplomacy, including a hopeful move by the European Union to approve a civilian monitoring mission.
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