The Security Council held its latest straw poll this morning for candidates for Secretary-General. The results potentially change the dynamics of the race to replace António Guterres.
In these ballots, all 15 members of the Security Council are asked to indicate whether they “encourage,” “discourage,” or have “no opinion” on each candidate. The ballots do not distinguish between the five veto-wielding permanent members and the other ten members.
As in all previous straw polls, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan remains in the lead. But her lead narrowed considerably since the last straw poll on September 29.
Following that poll, she was the clear frontrunner, with 10 “encourage” votes, three “discourage” votes, and two “no opinions.” This time, she received nine “encourage” votes and six “discourage” votes. In second place was IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, who received six “encourage” votes and seven “discourage” votes. The other five candidates fared poorly.
Here are the full results.
So Where Does The Race for UN Secretary General Actually Stand?
This ballot did not distinguish between the preferences of the veto-wielding members and the rest of the Security Council, but the next straw poll — tentatively scheduled for next week — probably will. At that point, we will see the extent to which the P5 are supporting or opposing each candidate, including the frontrunner, Rebeca Grynspan.
But discouraging the advancement of a candidate right now does not necessarily mean that a P5 member is unwilling to compromise. What really matters is how strongly a P5 member may oppose a candidate. It could be that a member of the P5 would prefer someone else but could still live with the consensus of the rest of the Council. Here, for example, is how one analyst at the right-wing Washington, D.C., Think Tank described the situation:
Ben Cohen, who focuses on international organizations at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Ms. Grynspan was unlikely to be Washington’s first choice. But she could emerge as a compromise candidate if the five permanent members of the Security Council reject the other leading contenders and agree that they could accept her, he said.
That sounds right to me. But another, entirely different scenario is that Grynspan is strongly opposed by one or more members of the P5 and that none of the current crop of seven candidates is a viable contender. If that is the case, we are likely to see new candidates emerge after the next straw poll.
So, bottom line: Rebeca Grynspan is still very much in the lead. But her fate will come down to whether she is opposed by a veto-wielding member — and how firmly that opposition is held.
We will know more next week, and I’ll be back to update you all.