The UN Secretary-General Race Is About to Get Real

The Winnowing Begins as the Security Council gets its first crack at selecting the next Secretary General

On Thursday, the Security Council will hold its first straw poll to test the viability of the seven current candidates for Secretary-General. This will offer the first real indication of which candidates may eventually be selected—and which probably won’t.

Here’s how these straw polls work: Each candidate is assigned a ballot, and each of the 15 members of the Security Council receives color-coded paper—one color for the 10 elected members and another for the veto-wielding permanent five, or P5. Diplomats then mark “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion” next to each name. If a candidate receives a “discourage” vote on a ballot associated with the P5, that candidate is probably out—it means they would likely face a veto in the formal vote.

This first straw poll, however, will be undifferentiated, meaning there will be no separate colors for permanent and elected members. Still, it could begin to winnow the field. If a candidate receives a substantial number of “discourage” votes, they are probably out. Conversely, if a candidate receives a substantial number of “encourage” votes, along with some “no opinion” votes and no “discourage” votes, it would suggest that they can pass muster.

This Friday, Anjali Dayal and I will go live here on Substack with our analysis of the results. Tune in if you can! I’ll also send out the recording afterward for those who can’t join us live.

Meanwhile, I wanted to flag some other highlights from recent and upcoming episodes.

• Don’t miss my conversation with Secretary-General candidate María Fernanda Espinosa, who discusses her vision for the UN. (I’m actively trying to book the other candidates as well.)

• Our most recent To Save Us From Hell episode goes deep into all the controversies surrounding the International Criminal Court, which just voted to oust Prosecutor Karim Khan. We explain what’s going on.

• Earlier this week, I published an interview with former U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns, recorded live at the Aspen Security Forum. You can find it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

• Later this week, I’ll publish my conversation with Carl Skau, acting executive director of the World Food Programme, who discusses how the Iran conflict is affecting global food security—and why he is so worried about the coming super El Niño. You’ll find that on Thursday on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Other upcoming episodes include a conversation with former New Zealand prime minister and UNDP chief Helen Clark, who is leading a major UN-backed effort on pandemic prevention and preparedness; a discussion with experts from the International Crisis Group about what actually causes peace in the world today; and an interview with journalist Sarah Maslin, who wrote a fascinating piece in The Economist about the precarious situation facing the thousands of Cuban doctors sent around the world on humanitarian missions.

All of these episodes will be freely available. But, as always, if you are able to support my work with a paid subscription, please do so! These episodes are free—but they also represent hours upon hours of work. Your subscription helps ensure the continued success of Global Dispatches. You can support my work at full price or using the discount button below.